Summary
Each week, I provide my views on the global macroeconomic environment, with a look ahead to the coming week and a look back at the previous one. Breaking down the top macro headlines around the world, I explain the key implications for investors—and what I think the mainstream news outlets could be missing. This week’s highlights include:
- Despite lower-than-expected US inflation in May, I believe it is far too early to discount the effect of tariffs on consumer prices. Ultimately, companies will have to raise prices, cut other costs, and/or accept lower profit margins.
- China trade data were weaker than expected, but country-level export figures told an interesting story. While there is not yet a smoking gun, it appears that some portion of China’s exports are being transshipped through third countries to avoid US tariffs.
- China’s consumer and producer prices remained in deflation. The positive driver is declining commodity input prices that lower producer costs. However, the negative driver of deflation is excess supply which continues to worsen.
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Published on June 13, 2025.
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