Übersicht
Über Bord mit Vermutungen
- Im Jahr 2025 werden die Anleger viele lang gehegte Vermutungen über die globale Wirtschafts- und Investitionslandschaft hinterfragen müssen. In seinem jährlichen globalen Ausblick teilt der Chefmarktstratege Ronald Temple seine Analyse der Kräfte, die in diesem ungewöhnlich unsicheren Jahr die Märkte voraussichtlich beeinflussen werden.
- In den Vereinigten Staaten könnten bedeutende politische Veränderungen das globale Wachstum, die US-Inflation und die Rentabilität von Unternehmen wesentlich beeinflussen.
- China wird im Zentrum des Sturms stehen und vermutlich mit asymmetrischen Vergeltungsmaßnahmen und erheblichen fiskal- und geldpolitischen Impulsen auf den US-Protektionismus reagieren.
- Die Eurozone wird wahrscheinlich durch die US-Handelspolitik, den fiskalischen Druck aufgrund höherre Verteidigungsausgaben und die potenzielle Sicherheitsbedrohung durch ein ermutigtes Russland auf die Probe gestellt.
- Japan wird damit zu kämpfen haben, die Vorteile einer positiven Inflation gegen den Unmut der Wähler über steigende Lebenshaltungskosten und den Wunsch nach einer Stabilisierung des Yen abzuwägen.
- Der geopolitische Hintergrund wird sich wahrscheinlich deutlich verschieben, was die Preise über alle Anlageklassen hinweg erheblich beeinflussen könnte.
Important Information
Published on 17 December 2024
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